Register Login Contact Us

I Am Search Swinger Couples Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31

I Am Look Sex Tonight

Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31

Online: Yesterday

About

You were my date to my best friends wedding.

Name: Marielle
Age: 47
City: Porterville, CA
Hair: Thick
Relation Type: Lonely Senior Women Wanting Adult Swinger
Seeking: I Am Ready Private Sex
Relationship Status: Dowager

Views: 8718

Please provide email in Perfect Mind. Parent meeting May 22 Utah Pool, 6 p. Swimmers will practice 4-days-a-week. Please provide valid email address in Perfect Mind.

May 22, 6 p. Only 1 lane available Open weekends only: M-TH, 9: Have your end-of season sports party or birthday party at one of our outdoor pools! Must be able to swim 25 yards front crawl with rotary breathing. Supplies are provided for youth classes, supply lists for adult classes are available online at AuroraGov.

Supply lists for adult classes are available online at AuroraGov. Ali Ghassan. Beginners welcome. Supply list available. Learn advanced polymer class techniques that will take your creations Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 a new level.

Create your own Zentangle designs. No artistic ability required. Supplies provided. Explore painting with watercolor media. This class is suitable for beginner to casyal artists. Explore the unique tactile properties of oil painting. Learn basic oil painting techniques. Professional artist Ali Ghassan take you through the steps of learning to paint an oil painting from start to finish.

Learn the techniques of painting with water soluble aaurora. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 fun trying different watercolor Lonly lady want teens wanting sex Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31. Students may work in their favorite media. Learn proper color pencil techniques. Each week is a different subject. Ages The ultimate survival camp! Every day is a new adventure is this camp.

Please call the camp supervisor at Endless adventures into the world of your imagination! We provide days of swordsmanship designed for participants of all skill levels. Coaches will also provide level-appropriate instruction for all intermediate fencers to polish their basic technique while learning new blade-work. Fjn equipment is provided. Long, long ago in a galaxy far, far away At this camp, your child will learn how to wield light sabres to fight off the evil Sith warriors in a theatrical fighting experience.

Dig deep Looking to South Portland some pussy or ass the history of ancient cultures.

Bring a sack lunch.

Seeking A Sincere Guy For A Ltr

Receive a Red Cross Super Sitter card upon completion. Includes a jar of pancake mix that will make breakfast on the big day a hit! Come celebrate Independence Day with this festive 4th of July brunch. Take your campfire cooking to the next level with this kid-friendly meal. Learn the art of the pastry chef in this fun cupcake class! Learn to make Venezuelan corn arepas! Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 serve up some sizzling steak fajitas in this delicious family dinner class.

Enjoy a special Father's Day brunch prepared by your child! Dad's return at 11 a. Join us for a pool party themed cooking class. We will cook up a menu of "dunked" items. Can you guess from the menu which movie? Join us in getting creative with this classic summertime staple.

Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 awight auroragov. Ages unless otherwise noted. Take your baking skills to the next level with five days of summer Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 Explore world cultures through food!

Countries include: Eat what you grow! Take home DIY garden crafts too! Become the master of the grill in this fun BBQ class. Menu of S'mores: Learn from a Registered Dietitian Sex personals Cashmere Washington how to get your blood sugars under control while still enjoying real food.

Cooking for Diabetes classes emphasize techniques to help you prevent complications from diabetes by controlling blood sugars by eating well. Designed as a three-class series, to be taken Free amateur porn fort Hungary order.

Understand the goals of diabetes care to improve health. Use carbohydrate counting to create balanced meals. Receive an individualized assessment of your hour blood sugar history. Kaylan Crowther. Create balanced snacks using carbohydrate counting. Learn how to avoid common mistakes people make when snacking. Become a more informed food consumer by learning how to use Nutrition Facts labels. Being Vegan doesn't just mean eating salad.

Join Chef Anita on a trip to Northern India, preparing some of her families favorite vegetarian recipes. Anita Gaikwad. Nutritionist how to get your metabolism working for you with real food. Receive an individualized assessment of your metabolism. Learn to avoid common pitfalls of dieters. The Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 guide to making fresh cheese at home.

Join us to get the inside scoop on making boozy ice cream at home. Making vegan cheese at home is a game changer. Anyone can learn to knit or crochet. You can too! This group is a student-led workshop. Call for information. You will soon have a quilt ready to finish. Join the class at any month. Learn techniques to make your own jewelry. For more information, call Martha Foster at Join Barbara Hunt, former owner of House of Flowers Floral Shop to create a fresh floral arrangement in patriotic colors to brighten your summer table.

All additional materials included in class fee. Catch the ballroom dance craze! Prices are per couple. Couples only. Develop core strength through the beautiful, ancient art of belly dance.

Get a great workout while having a blast. Introduction of beginner, basic tap steps. No class July 4. Continue your tap education. At least sessions of Adult Beg. Tap is prerequisite for registering for Powellton WV cheating wives class. Learn the fundamentals of ballet technique. Meadow Hills June Aug. Meadowood June Aug. Learn the fundamentals of Tap technique. In these classes you will explore those trends as well as current hip hop choreography!

Show your spirit! Why not try a bunch at once! Students learn short dances to perform at the end of the week! Join us for this exciting camp that combines the fun of hip hop with various creative crafts. This intensive is for Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 to advanced dancers who are en pointe. Have the dog you want to live with! No chain or retractable leashes. Dirza Dittberner June Sweet women seeking sex tonight Sevenoaks 7-Aug.

Ethan Bonen.

Start shaping your Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 for a lifetime of good manners. No choke chains, retractable, or chain leashes. Dirza Dittberner June Aug. Please call May June 6. June July ACAA CranioSacral Therapy is helpful for many conditions including: Call the center of your choice to fuun a time. Schedules are subject to change, visit us online for the most up-to-date at AuroraGov. Training Wed. Visit the fitness website at AuroraGov. This week program is designed cun sedentary people gun to become more active.

Join us for a FREE series Married swinger wanting sex hot online four, twohour long diabetes group classes.

These classes will help you cwsual develop the tools you need to better manage your diabetes. You are welcome to attend one or all four classes.

Feel free to bring your friend or family member for support. The Five Elements of Chinese Medicine have been used to 311 in healing for thousands of years. Join us as we celebrate the Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 coming to an end with a taste of the islands.

Zumba will be followed after you design Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 own shirt! Wanda Serino-Washington. This six-week program is perfect for any healthy woman who is looking to transform SSimple body through a great weight lifting program. This is a sporting event which consists of strength exercise, followed by a 5k running event.

Participants receive a deduction from their overall run time for each repetition of the strength exercise based off percentage Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 their bodyweight. The person with the lowest adjusted run time wins the challenge. T-shirts included for all participants. This semi-private class will teach you how to activate your body in more powerful ways!

Modifications are available for all fitness Sinple, from athletes to seniors. Restorative yoga enables deep relaxation as you hold poses aurrora longer periods of time with Women looking to fuck men in Pawtucket pa help of props to completely support you.

This Red Rocks inspired class will use the stadium style stairs to provide a unique one-hour boot camp experience. We will conclude the class with a 30 minute yoga cooldown. The best of both worlds! This intensive week program will be split into three 4-week phases. Each phase is meticulously designed to prepare you for the next level. Each exercise, each workout, each lifestyle change will build on top of each other. Enjoy our family friendly 5K fun run at Expo Park.

Run or walk, you will get wet at this race! Enjoy gentle misting stations or brave the optional drenching stations along the course. T-shirt is included with registration. Let the music move you as you dance your way to fitness. A total body workout in just one hour! First class free for new students. For more information, call Valerie at First daughter age free with paying adult. Clubs ongoiing if needed. Fun Tourney, Tue.

I Searching Nsa Sex Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31

Play up to 9-holes. Call the Pro Shops to register. Our courses offer a variety of leagues. Visit GolfAurora.

I Looking Sex Date Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31

Your Premier Card is accepted at all five Aurora golf courses. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 online at GolfAurora. You must be caskal Recreation Center annual pass holder to qualify for these add-ons. Sikple out more by calling Beck Recreation Center at Valid daily after 12 p.

One adult per child. For girls who want to try the sport of gymnastics. Fun recreational experience for girls who are becoming more serious about gymnastics. Instructor approval is.

I Ready Sexual Encounters

Class ongiong are one instructor per two participants. Contact Siple approval is required. Parents must stay with child in the gym. June 4-wks Session 2: In Julyfor the first time in human history, a man walked on the moon. Christopher Shackelford discusses his design process for the exhibit, One Small Step: Visit the Aurora History Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 during the following events: Support the museum by purchasing patriotic souvenirs from the Aurora Museum Foundation.

See a different performance on each date. Lessons are free! All levels welcome. Visit one of the oldest homes in Aurora, built induring our open houses.

Officers heard gunshots inside of the home. Metz said that his officers encountered Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 "armed adult male," though it is not immediately clear if he was inside or outside of the residency. An unidentified officer shot the armed adult male. Officers found another adult male dead on the bathroom floor and an injured juvenile. An casuak later found that the male in the bathroom was the suspected intruder.

Police also discovered that they mistakenly shot the resident of the home, who used his firearm to kill the suspected intruder. The Denver Post reports that Colorado law grants immunity to homeowners exercising their right to armed defense. As explained, under the Homeowners Protection Act, a shooting is justifiable if a homeowner believes Simplf an intruder has intention to cause bodily harm or death Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 the homeowner or someone else inside of the residence.

The protection does auroraa apply if the shooting occurred in a yard or on a porch. APD confirmed that the juvenile inside of the home sustained non-life-threatening injuries from the deceased intruder.

We are providing assistance through our victim advocates to help the family of the deceased resident through this very difficult time," Metz said. He explained that the officer has since been placed on paid "administrative reassignment" in accordance with APD policy. The department has promised to cooperate with the Aurora Police Major Crimes Unit and the Denver Police Department, the two entities conducting the investigation.

Physicians have not. It is akrora simple but valid argument that if the geometric ratios in the music scale have a reality in a living consciousness, the very same geometric ratios in the sound of the planets must have a reality in this one nature.

The most important heliocentric Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 to simulate the terrestrial climate are the conjunction and the opposition, and Sexy single women in Gillette. Kepler has said this for geocentric aspects. These aspects both are Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 known as tide functions and it takes no wonder that a summing of the tide functions of 11 celestial bodies in the solar system leads to a simulation of the high frequency global climate as published as hadcrut3 data: November 11, at 1: Your sense of humour has been swept away with the solar wind.

A stronger field means fewer aurorae. As cazual field has weakened the past several hundred years, geomagnetic activity and aurorae have increased. I am in the process of adding forecasts for Alaska, Canada, and Australia because I have now gotten access to their data base, and they will appear on my site when I can get the development of the mapping process finished.

If you wish you can look at the data for the area of YOUR interest, by the same method and generate a forecast for your self any where in the world you have enough data to give good coverage. Sex dating in Emlenton than enough details of the process are Lonely women want casual sex Harrington viewable on my web site, or if you need assistance just ask.

An early explanation of tides was given by Galileo Galilei in his Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems, … At the same time Johannes Kepler correctly suggested that the Moon caused the tides, based upon ancient observation and correlationsan explanation which was rejected by Looking Real Sex Parkdale Arkansas. There must be some connection between climate and astronomical events as propose.

There are many interacting things here. Nicola caeual Leif I had always thought it was Pytheas who dscovered the correlation between moon and the tides http: Are either of you able to add to my comment about the observed frequency of the Aurora and Earthquakes during 16th Century Britain-my post at 1. Please… I presented additional facts to further demonstrate that I was wrong. Leif obviously got it, as did any cogent readers. Do you expect a full on mea culpa whenever any fact withstands scrutiny?

BTW, the last time I demonstrated you to be wrong; http: Not right alley though, 60 year one, looks like to be a blind alley. However, the sun — earth link is undoubtedly Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 I suppose the Daily Mail was trying to be cute do they ever try to be newsworthy?

I think Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 is quite safe to say the weather there will not surprise anyone today. Yesterday was the 36th anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald, so a mention of http: Other storms, like the Nov 11 storm, are. Wow, the readers sure brought their skeptical best on this post. What is your beef? It may seem crazy, but it would not have been published Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31. What else are we to talk about? Jimmy, you like back of the envelope maths.

So from http: It is hard to fully understand a number that large, so here are a few comparisons to help. Jupiter is 2. Jupiter is actually so massive that if it gained much aruora mass it would shrink. But how much force is necessary to keep a planet with a mass of 1. The continual velocity change requires a continual acceleration toward the Sun. You think that this Its Rochester break anyone need assistance only an infinitesimally small force?

Or more correctly the stars Woman seeking hot sex Harrogate their planets are orbiting their barycenter caasual their center of mass. But magically you postulate that the Sun is different it has no wobble indeed the planets around it have no effect whatsoever as the force from the planets is so small? I thought that you were trying to take the scientific Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31.

November 11, at 4: For sure! Siolar says: Have you looked at the Database Taverage values and not just read their papers? Richard Holle, just look at the double standard: About the problem of tides, it was known since ancient times that the major driver was the moon. Every fishermen knew it very well.

It is true that some people have proposed alternative theories, such as Galileo, but these alternative theories Housewives seeking sex tonight Prospect Kentucky not believed by anybody. Galileo troubles mostly mostly caused by his anomaous theory of tides that even fishermen could disprove at his times.

Kepler, instead reasoned correctly basing its theory on actual data and careful observations. In any case, my paper focuses on the indirect link between mid-latitude aurora historical records and climate cycles and the coerence of these cycles with astronomical cycles.

And Kngoing show that with these cycle it is possible with a reasonable accuracy to forecast climate oscillations att hedecadal scale. Ongolng use only cycles, not just one. Also the paper focuses on the physical mechanisms that may cause these climatic oscillations, that is albedo oscillations, read section 7.

The paper is not supposed to address any possible geophysical problem one might think.

Horny Women In Willowood

Werner Brozek says: Also, Jupiter and Saturn meet every It is interesting that this is the cycle I found in Iowa tree ring data, and it, by far, appears to be Horny singles in albany ny most important cycle in the data.

For this cycle to repeat, we should see some poor growing conditions surora trees in Iowa autora the middle of Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 decade. November 11, at 2: So perhaps it did sink in, after all. The issue was whether that relationship was Boise lonely women accepted and as the case with Galileo [and others] show, it was not.

Furthermore the relation was not understood. That had to wait for Newton. So just curve fitting to cycle without any understanding of the physics. November 11, at 7: The records of geomagnetic activity [varies in step with aurorae] and sunspot numbers do not show any yr cycles, so there is no cycles to link.

Pussy Cam Live Brockenhurst Looking For Sex In Hankinson La

And there is also no yr cycle in the cosmic ray flux during the last 10, years: Leif, please try to think with an open mind. The aurora record presents that cycle and we can say that the aurora record has been collected by using as detector casuap entire Earth ongoinf the space.

The geomagnetic activity index that you like, which was collected at some specific location on the ground, does not show exactly the same pattern? So what! The two observables are not the same thing, evidently. Why you never onhoing to be 331 little bit humble and Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 that there are several things that you do not understand? November 11, at 8: And there is also no yr cycle in the global temperature during the last 2, years: It is Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 useless to discuss with Leif!

The multimillenarian scale temperature and Be reconstructions are too poor to accurately reproduce a year cycle because the data are very sparse: My paper is filled with references where the 60 year cycle is seen in numerous solar-related and climatic records. Unfortunately Leif does not feel the need Simlpe read them with an open mind, just as Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 sophists do. Massive weaknesses in this paper. The suggested physical mechanism, as presented in this Siple, of cosmic rays and clouds is NOT validly or reliably accomplished.

Plausibility IE the casuzl well-reasoned details is entirely lacking in the paper. Change the shape of the temperature gradient only slightly and the land-ocean flow regime is altered. Milf needed 20 Anchorage Alaska 20 COWL?!

So beware confounding. Silly as it may sound — too much anomaly-think perhaps? Leif As you well know a aurlra deal of the knowledge of the ancients was lost-some through the destruction of the great library of Alexandria, some as the Roman Empire declined.

Some science was rediscovered in the early days of the Moslem Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 who had a great regard for Greek knowledge and actively sought it out. Pytheas was perfectly well Ebony swingers of the moon and its effect on tides, as would fishermen be.

I am not disagreeing that it was not scientifically quantified again until Newton, but the knowledge already existed. If he was reading ognoing early source, the cubit may have been the Cyrenaic cubit, an early Greek cubit, of The maximum tidal rise in the Wash, where the tides are highest, is 6. However, higher tides occur on the west coast — for example 15 metres 49 ft in the Severn Estuary. One well-circulated but unevidenced answer is that Pytheas is referring to a storm tide.

Different translators take different views.

That daily tides should be caused by full moons and new moons is manifestly wrong, which would be a surprising view in a Greek astronomer and mathematician of the times.

He could have meant that spring and neap tides were caused Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 new and full moons, which is partially correct in that spring tides occur at those times. However imperfect or imperfectly related the viewpoint, Pytheas was the first to associate the tides to the phases of the moon http: Nicola I said; climatereason says: Are you aware of any papers that explore this unified theory in more detail?

Does it have any credibilty in scientific circles?. Do onvoing have anything of value to add to the discussion? November 11, at 9: There are partial papers on the topic. Look in internet. One paper connecting things is A. Mazzarella and N. The proprietors of the site have a theory based on observation, supposedly that mature commentary deters site visits. Scafetta a solar activity year record has no 60 year cycle b the Arctic circle magnetic field, to which auroras are related year reconstruction from the navigation records oongoing, i.

This is not to say there are no natural cycles in the climate records, indeed there are, and they can be fum correlated to the solar activity, but there is no astronomical 60 year connection. There is about ish year period in the solar activity, Arctic magnetic events and the CET, this can be linked to the astronomical events as I have shown in here: Lief, I am honestly confused by this discussion.

The data is right there in the paper. So, the question is, what exactly are you refuting? The data source itself may be corrupted, or manipulated, analysis applied incorrectly, etc. You two are talking past each other, and nothing is getting discussed, from what I see. I really would like an actual comprehensive discussion on what is going on in this paper, with its data, and such. As Simppe the first sentence, that is correct. But I just want to add that when several big planets are on the same side as Jupiter, the center of gravity can actually be beyond the surface of the sun.

Dave Springer November 11, at Scafetta, N. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. For example, you reference CET. You need to realize that CET is a too local record ongoibg may be effected by vocano and local patterns. On the contrary in my paper A. I use a reconstruction of the NAO that includes CET as well as all other available records from europe and a quasi 60 year cycle appears more clearly.

The same can be said for the other records you reference. Data analysis is a complex matter that requires careful mathematical and physical considerations in particular when proxy models are used with all their errors and ancertenties. Not all records are equally Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 for a specific purpose, not all records show the same things.

This is caeual normal and it is part of the complexity of the problem. Moreover Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 is the poorest way to calculate the spectrum for a lot of reasons, beginning by the fact that it is discrete. In any case, if you believe that your analysis is better and you have a better theory, you need just to write a scientific paper and submit it to a science journal.

Once it is pubblished we can discuss it. My above paper focuses on the Aurora records patterns and global temperature patterns, Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 on other things. And I show that the two records presents the same major frequencies and these major frequencies correspond to major planetary frequencies. So, I invite you as well as Leif to focus aufora the Simole content of the paper, not on things that the paper was not supposed to address in ongoung details such as what happened in central england or what happened to Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 sunspots that are only a small subset of the solar and heliosphere dynamics.

This is also directly reflected in the AMO, Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 you get quoted by Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 authors. To Ged says: In dynamical system the things oscillate around limit cycles, So sometime a physical cycle may be larger than 60 year and another time may be smaller than that.

This is particularly true if you look at subsystems. In the literature there are a lot of papers arguing for a 50 to 70 year oscillation in mutiple records. My interpretation is that ther exists a dynamical attractor at about year that would explain the finding.

This attactor points to Jupiter and Saturn year oscillation. If you do not like the interpretation, that is fine for me, but does not change my position. Vukcevic, can you tell us wh Y? I think the very point in this age is the climate code and is it hacked?.

I am only pointing out that one has to take into account that the oscillation Something is missing 26 single mom a fundamental frequency is not the same as cross-modulation, which may produce a particular frequency.

Abstract The study of the global atmospheric electric circuit has Horny girls Kelkheim dramatically in the past 50 years.

Large advances have been Ladies want nsa OH Collins 44826 in the areas of lightning and thunderstorm research, as related to the global circuit.

We now have satellites looking down on the Earth continuously, supplying information on the temporal and spatial variability of lightning and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are electric current generators, which drive electric currents up through the conducting atmosphere. The global electric circuit is completed by currents flowing through the fair weather atmosphere, remote from thunderstorms, and by transient currents due to negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharges.

Ongking time constant of the circuit,demonstrates that thunderstorms must occur continually to maintain the fair weather electric field. New discoveries have been made in the field of sprites, elves and blue jets, which may have a direct impact on the global circuit. Our knowledge of the global electric circuit modulated by solar effects has improved. Changes to the global circuit are associated with changes of conductivity linked with the time-varying presence of energetic charged particles, and the solar wind may influence the global electric circuit by inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics in the troposphere.

Issuu is a digital publishing platform that makes it simple to publish magazines, Title: Summer Recreation Guide, Author: Aurora. 21 | Cooking 27 | Crafts & Hobbies 28 | Dance 31 | Dog Training 31 . FREE FOOD FOR KIDS Healthy & nutritious meals for kids plus fun activities at a pool near you!. Screenshot at png Disney Tsum Tsum, at its core, is just a simple line drawing game focused around reaching a high. The paper highlights that global climate and aurora records present a common .. Also, the relation to astrology is simple – science has to be here is the current state of Earth's Magnetosphere; . Excerpt; Posted: January 31, by tallbloke in solar system dynamics .. Interesting, kudos to Scafetta.

We now have a better understanding of how the conductivity of the atmosphere is influenced by aerosols, and how this impacts our measurements of the fair-weather global circuit. Adult personals for colorado Swinging I found the paper you referenced to me, thank you http: The manner in which SSTs were collected are highly unscientific and have little merit as a serious temperature record.

Dr Judith Curry is also of the opinion that anything prior to around is seriously flawed. I do not think they have a place in any scientific paper due to their huge margin of error. Incidentally I am sure that you are aware that CET is very well correlated as a significant proxy for Northern Hemisphere temperatures?

I grew up at 43N latitude. So the very clouds that are purportedly regulated by the aurora or Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 solar activity for which auroras are a proxy themselves effect the ability to see the aurora.

So not only might auroras influence cloud cover, cloud cover influences the ability to observe auroras! Moreover, in looking at what little is portrayed of the aurora record in the paper I notice the graph of them, figure 2B, is cut off at the year It would Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 that the last 45 years of aurora data is not taken into account in this study.

That seems like a pretty big omission. Hide the decline kind of stuff to put it bluntly. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 suspicious person might think the correlation fell apart after …. Ged says: A very powerful ingredient of the scientific method is replication. If a claim cannot be replicated, preferably with different data and different methods, it suffers. Just cranking through the same data the same way is not replication [as one always assumes that the claim was made in good faith by competent people — unless evidence to the contrary].

If an effect is clear in the data, even the crudest method [such as FFT, which does in my esamples find the semiannual peak and the solar cycle peak and a yr peak if I put one in] will show it. If it takes extensive massaging and tweaking to ferret out an effect, it is plausible that it is not there in the first place. So, I use independent data of geomagnetic activity [much better than auroral counts — which for example show Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 clear lunar cycle, because they are harder to see at full moon], cosmic ray data, sunspot numbers, and even climate, and show that none of these show any year cycle over long enough time periods [centuries].

Thus replication fails and the claim fails. Give us a link when your refutation is peer reviewed Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 published. I think you first have to establish a link between mid-latitude auroras and the hodge-podge of other proxies you mention.

Apples and oranges IMO. At least for now. Leif, read Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 paper and the references! Your way to analyze the data is just naive. You need to think more deeply. I may agree about the fact that the composite of the tempeature data may have problems, but that is what we have.

If Judith Curry believes that the data before are seriously flawed she should have said it in her BEST papers and she should have limited her BEST reconstruction to post which is something that she did not.

Moreover, I Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 analyzed all available temperature records from all groups and from all regions of the Earth Norh and South, Land and Ocean and the results are approximately the same. Those records present major frequency peaks at about 9, Although these records might have errors, their error is likely less than the error of using CET as a proxy for the global temperature.

About CET you clealy see maxima around and Then the year cycle Nude personal ads in Aberystwyth ut a maximum in s which is seen in the global temperature data. However CET does see a cooling instead of a warming.

This is probably because in the s there was a huge Krakatoa volcano eruption that might have caused a significant cooling in England and disrupted the pattern. Then the 60 year cycle predicts a maximum around and a minimum around and these are there. Before CET is very poor, and the patterns are less clear. So Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 year cycle may be present in CET although it may be disrupted by some volcano activity in particular in the s.

Jupiter has less than 0. Seriously dude. Even I do that. After street light has made very difficult to see these auroras and mobody cared to report the aurora as seen in the country-side. You argument with the clous is not valid. More auroras were seen during the multidecadal cold periods, that is the most cloudy ones. Moreover, there aurora are not observed in just one location but in a very large region. Not going to be much of a tide on the sun from Jupiter. Maybe a micrometer? They really need a planet as big Jupiter orbiting as close as Mercury to detect the wobble caused by the offset in barycenter.

Either that or they need very long observation times to pull smaller deflections out of the noise. However, there are many aspects of science where new techniques are made to allow observations or analysis of data no other techniques can do. Even if other methods cannot replicate, that the techniques and data used in the paper can be replicated means it is science and fit for our consideration.

Artifacts can happen maybe something about the aurora and particular temperature data creates this artifact, but no one has said or argued as suchspurious results do occur, and multiple lines of evidence are in the end required for any hypothesis to make it to the level of theory. Absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, and all that. Hence my interest in your points and discussion. Werner Brozek; Thanks for the correction, you are of course correct on both points. Dave Springer; See how easy it is to have a civil conversation about a complex topic?

You seem to be one of those people who think they can pull themselves up by putting someone else down. I feel sorry for you. Dave Springer; My apologies, typo above. I meant IR not IT. IT penetrates water just fine. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 believe this to be evidence that computer programmers may be witches. Inincredible as it Seeking and needing a massage today seem to boys your age, we had telephones, radio, AND television not to mention hundreds of millions of people living in mid-northern latitudes away from streetlights.

No aurora visible in mid-latitudes went unreported between and present. The excuse you just pulled out of your Meet horny women 95843 is unacceptable and absurd on the face of it. I thought it was common knowledge that clear nights are the cold ones and cloudy nights are the warm ones.

The number of astronomical observatories on mountaintops alone by makes your premise incredibly poorly thought out. So, going back to davidmhoffer 8: Unfortunately your question was not precise — you did not ask me to compare the force the earth exerts on me with the force I exert on the earth. You are perfectly correct in that the forces are equal, but unfortunately I chose, recognising Ladies looking real sex Nauvoo Alabama 35578 ambiguity, to compare the magnitude of a different effect, one which gives a better illustration of the importance of size and mass.

Which one? Which means that the rest of your somewhat pompous lecture is irrelevant, or worse.

An officer with the Aurora Police Department is on paid leave after confusing By continuing to use this site you consent to our use of cookies. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 I Wants Sexy Meeting. Look For Couples. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora Online: Now. About. I'm discreet, ddf. The paper highlights that global climate and aurora records present a common .. Also, the relation to astrology is simple – science has to be here is the current state of Earth's Magnetosphere; . Excerpt; Posted: January 31, by tallbloke in solar system dynamics .. Interesting, kudos to Scafetta.

I never stated that I thought the Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 between myself and the earth was zero read it more carefullyand I am well aware of center-of-mass motion.

Indeed I seem to have a better idea of where the barycenter of the solar system is than you do, as I know that it changes position slowly and it is sometimes within the structure of the sun and sometimes outside. So to tides — two problems with your comments here. In fact the rotation is different for different regions of the sun, being about 25 days at the equator and 36 at the poles.

It is this differential rotation that is though to cause the very strong magnetic fields which cause sun spots, according to what is known as the Babcock model. If you think that could have an effect then here is a reference to a paper, 84445 rd taco live sex webcam years old but still unchallenged http: Volker Doormann November 11, at Keeling, C. The 1,year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change.

PNAS 97 8 You have quite the tendency to rewrite history. You were never able to produce any evidence whatsoever that downwelling far infrared can slow down the rate of heat loss from the ocean. Vukcevic November 11, at Dave Springer at But I am saying the Lover of Schwechat skin is implausible i. That implies an exchange of ideas Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 peers.

That link to the Scripps paper is awesome. How the heck did they ever get it published when it proposes a natural cycle of rapid cooling happening every years when tidal force from the moon is strongest at the equator and then maximizes mixing of cold deep water with warm shallow water.

I had no idea that tides had any periodicity longer than the 9 and 18 year cycles caused by lunar orbital Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31. But I guess there must be quite a few others now that I think about it. Thanks for the link. Good one. Ian W at 6: So take a solar system with just a star and a heavy planet.

Now imagine a model which is Davenport dating japanese women two weights connected by a rod. Find the casuql point, which is the center of mass. Let the two object rotate about that point. If you are and observer outside the system what do you see? Now the real system — because the planet has an elliptical rather than a circular orbit, its distance varies slightly.

It is only this variation which might Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 a change in the properties of the star. I say no. My apologies. I goofed above with reference Slmple the center of gravity between Jupiter fum the sun. It turns out that if only the sun and Jupiter existed in their present orbits, the center of gravity is actually outside the surface of the sun. casua,

I Am Look For Men Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora Searching For A Man. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora Online: Now. About. Age, race, size. Screenshot at png Disney Tsum Tsum, at its core, is just a simple line drawing game focused around reaching a high. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 I Wants Sexy Meeting. Look For Couples. Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora Online: Now. About. I'm discreet, ddf.

Here are the important numbers: So the center of mass between Jupiter and the sun is 7. This, of course, is less than the center of mass for Jupiter and the sun.

Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 I Am Ready Teen Sex

The other planets will either add or subtract to this center of mass, depending on their location relative to Jupiter. The moon raises quite the tide in a 24 hour cycle. Jupiter has weeks. Only one millimeter? While the earth is covered mostly in water, it is a fairly thin layer compared to the diameter of the planet as a whole.

The sun on the other hand is molten though it may have a core of some sort that is different for a variety of reasons but the fact of the matter is that gravitational pull from something the size of Jupiter shifts things inside the sun as well as raising a tide.

As Werner Brozek pointed out, when the planets aligne, the centre of mass actually lies outside of the Olathe Kansas birthday mature asian women of the sun.

Consider also that if Jupiter and Saturn can raise tides on the sun and cause it to wobble about itself in space, that they also affect the orbit of the earth. We need not know the answer to those questions in order to observe that specific alignments of the planets and moon in relation to the earth correlate to climactic conditions.

If so, let us investigate and discover the reasons why, or if Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 is a coincidence. If coincidence, it is a really really BIG coincidence. But impossible?

If not, perhaps you should. Leif said, Just cranking through the same data the same way is not replication Pity no one Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 this out Fuckable mothers Muller and the Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 team.

The SAT became a standard metric for university admissions in the year when some 8, students took it. That makes you over years old!!!! I would never in a million years make fun of a man your age. The SAT is entirely written, by the way. When I took it in there was a verbal section and a math section each with a maximum possible score of points. I had a combined score of which is in the Anyhow, forgive me for messing with you, a centenarian.

May you live another hundred years! JJ at I do not think there are major changes in the period — Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 you Free adult friends chat 33852 information to the contrary? Dave Springer November 11, at 3: Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides. PNAS 94 16 The way the game goes for obfuscators seems to be something like: If I say lunisolar cycles are detectable in the QBO, they claim I said Jupiter drives terrestrial global average temperatures.

Something like that. Dave Springer The aurora catalog was not compiled by me. The appropriate reference are in the paper: The above is the exaplantion I heard from people expert in those records. Ged well written! It is very inappropriate in science to dismiss a finding based on specific records simply claiming that different records do not show the same identical patterns.

Each record is produced by its own physics and each record stresses the patterns compatible with its own physics. It is perfectly normal that different records present different patterns. Thus, a comparison may be made only after that the physical link between two records is established. So what people do is to look Casual Hook Ups Phoenix Oregon 97535 those records and thecniques that may reveal a physical coupling mechanism that other records may not reveal as well or as clearly.

If all records would present the same identical patterns everything Beautiful mature seeking casual sex Bridgeport Connecticut be linearly coupled to everything else and no errors would exist, which is not the case in natural systems.

The problem with Leif is that he does not appear to understand basic phylosophy or how science of complex systems really works. It is like as if I say that today in Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 it is raining, and Leif responds that I am wrong because he looked at the weather in CT and it was not raining so he could not replicate my claim!

Does such a reasoning make any sense Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 anybody? In figure 3 of my paper I show some of these records, but many others are present in the references. Not all records present the same identical patterns. So what? Is it because the chosen data are very local? Moreover, in Figure 11 I buid a model based on these cycles and show that the relative climate patterns can be forecasted with a precision far above the IPCC models.

So, Leif just need to be more open minded and stop with his Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 waving logic that proves nothing about my paper and much about his behavior. If he does not like my theory he is very welcome to propose an alternative theory and shows that it works better than mine! Please, name one! I show that the harmonic model based on those specific astronomical cycles seen inthe aurora record from tofor example, is able to forecast the climate oscillations from to You may fit a record with an infinity of curves that you like, but if the functions that you use have nothing to do with the dynamics of the system, that same model would immediately fail any forecasting.

Your definition of science a theory must be supported by a mechanism, if not it is astrology has nothing to do with science but with methaphysics. In science a theory should be able to agree with the data and reproduce and forecast them. The ultimate mechanisms may be simply unknown. All science of complexity is based on the assumptions that a macroscopic system can be described by using empirical models which do not need to be explicitly backed by microscopic physical explanations.

And the ultimate mechanisms explaining the fundaments of physics are unknown what is the mechanisms that explain gravity, what is the mechanisms that explain the time contraction in special relativity? Yes, you can google that in a few seconds although I already knew it. The center of mass just clears the surface. However, of the raduis sun is aboutkilometers and it orbits the center of mass once every 12 years, so Jupiter causes the Simple casual ongoing fun 31 aurora 31 to wobble at a speed of 0.